The Year Ahead in Business

What will 2026 bring in business? News Club is the place to find out...

January 12, 2026

Welcome to our Year Ahead series where we talk with our friends in news about what they reckon will be the big themes of the year. This time, we’re talking about business with Joe Aston…

The Squiz is the place to stay informed, not overwhelmed.

Business news can feel impenetrable - full of jargon and acronyms that make your eyes glaze over. But the stories behind the numbers affect all of us, from our super balances to the price of groceries.

There is no one better than Joe Aston, founder of Rampart, to tell us what’s what. Before launching Rampart early last year, he spent more than a decade at the Australian Financial Review, where his Rear Window column was essential reading for anyone watching the boardrooms and back rooms of Australian business. The Squiz has been working with Joe behind the scenes on Rampart - something that's been a joy to be part of - and we sat down with him to talk about the big themes for the year ahead.

The story that stuck from 2025

Joe nominates 2 "pointy-headed" but consequential stories: James Hardie and the ASX.

James Hardie - the company many Australians associate with the asbestos scandal and unionist/campaigner Bernie Banton - bought an American decking company, without putting it to a shareholder vote with a greenlight from the ASX. The deal was terrible, and shareholders were furious. At the AGM at the end of last year, they voted the chairman and 2 directors off the board.

Joe Aston: I wasn't able to establish any other time in corporate history where the chairman of an ASX 20 company has been voted off the board at the AGM. Usually, they resign to avoid being voted off. No one's actually turned up to the AGM knowing that they were chairing their own execution.

And the ASX itself had a shocker - settlement failures, trading halts applied to the wrong companies, and announcements not publishing. It might sound like inside baseball, but when the system that settles your share trades fails, it has real consequences for ordinary Australians - and it raises questions about corporate governance in Australia more broadly.

Joe Aston: We are all victims of a fractionalised theft from our retirement funds. That's why I get really worked up about this stuff.

The big story for 2026

Two themes will dominate, Joe reckons: AI and interest rates.

On AI, watch what happens to the online classifieds businesses - real estate, cars, jobs. Their share prices have been smashed on the assumption that AI could disrupt their business models entirely.

Joe Aston: The stock market is just so... about vibes. That's the stupid thing about it. It could very quickly turn out to be true, or the stocks will just rip up again. There are lots of people on both sides of that bet.

On interest rates, everyone built in assumptions about multiple cuts - and now it looks like they may have started cutting too early. Inflation is still high, and the economy is struggling to grow without being inflationary.

And then there's US President Donald Trump... There's speculation he will stack the country's central bank with loyalists, and that could have consequences for the global economy...

Joe Aston: Trumpy wants a rate cut, Trumpy gets a rate cut - even if inflation is not really in the right place for one. And who the hell knows what happens then?

The story bubbling away to keep an eye on

The big 4 banks are all under new or newish leadership - and Joe reckons there's potential for proper competition for the first time in a long time.

Joe says ANZ's new CEO Nuno Matos is "going for it" at a bank that's been a laggard. Westpac's Anthony Miller is tackling a massive tech project that’s 15 years overdue. NAB's Andrew Irvine was under pressure in 2025 over his behaviour, and they're losing ground to Commonwealth Bank in business banking. Its boss Matt Comyn just keeps getting it right, he says.

Joe Aston: CBA's been such a well-run bank for such a long time. But maybe the others are getting their stuff together for the first time. There's potential for there to be some proper competition.

He's also watching Woolworths versus Coles. Coles is taking it up to Woolworths for the first time since Brad Banducci took over in 2015, and he reckons the market isn't convinced about Woolies CEO Amanda Bardwell's leadership.

Joe Aston: Woolworths is sort of bubbling along, underperforming, its shareholders getting more and more upset. But it's not an open crisis. And sometimes, if you're in an open crisis like Qantas was, you don't have any options. You've just gotta front up.

The interview

Claire Kimball and Larissa Moore chatted with Joe, and they also covered in the full interview:

  • The Murdoch succession and what it means for News Corp and Fox

  • Why has no one figured out where the power is coming from for AI data centres

  • Joe's verdict on Australia’s political leadership (spoiler: "pathetic")

Listen on your preferred podcast platform or watch on YouTube

Lightening the load for 2026

There's a special kind of defeat in watching your suitcase come along the carousel looking like it came off second-best during the transit shuffle.... Samsonite has been at it for over a century, and they've nailed the balance between lightweight and durable - handy when you're pushing weight limits or travelling frequently. Check out their range of travel essentials here.

Joe Aston's recommendations

📰 The $15 billion of missing Hermes shares (The Economist) - Joe has aspirations of reading it this summer after having it open on his computer for weeks… 

🎧 Mixed Signals (Semafor podcast) - Co-hosted by Ben Smith, this covers American media and politics with diverse, interesting guests. The episode with the YouTube CEO is a standout.

🏏 Cricket Et Al (Gideon Haigh’s co-authored Substack) - The greatest living cricket writer, who also happens to have written some tremendous business books - including Asbestos House, the definitive account of James Hardie.

🎙️ Rampart Talks - Joe's own interview podcast, featuring the likes of James Packer, Brad Banducci, Jayne Hrdlicka and Matt Comyn. It’s going to be monthly in 2026.

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